Last Week: 4-2 (+2.93u)
A strong performance gets us back to … literally .500 on this year’s picks, but at least we’re in the green thanks to a reasonably good performance on underdog moneylines. Hell, if you bet every pick except the Over of the Week, you’d be sitting at 20-15 (+6.44u) with an ROI of nearly 20%! Wouldn’t that be something? Come to think of it, if I had won every bet I put in here, we’d be 42-0 with an ROI of over 100%. Would you be so critical of my middling efforts then? Probably not. Who looks like a fool now?
So is last week a sign of things to come or a dead cat bounce? There is only one way to find out: by betting irresponsible amounts of money on this week’s picks. I do not make the rules.
THE PICKS
Overall: 21-21 (+1.35u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (4-3, +0.62u): WISCONSIN (-3) at Purdue. Jeff Brohm is developing a legendary ability to pull a big win directly out of his ass once it feels like he’s finally cooked. I’m not exactly thrilled to be taking this Badgers team but a combination of their recent mastery over the Boilermakers and Brohm putting his feet on his desk until he obliterates uhhh [spins wheel] #3 Michigan in two seasons has me confident. Wisconsin 29, Purdue 17
Underdog of the Week (4-3, +.71u): Cincinnati at NAVY (+28). Cincinnati is, dare I say it: firmly in control of their playoff destiny. They dispatched a formidable non-conference schedule and now just have to avoid tripping over themselves in conference play and also hope the committee doesn’t just end ignoring everything they’ve done. Navy won’t win this game, but you can’t get into college football heaven if you try to stick it to The Troops. Cincinnati 34, Navy 10
Over of the Week (1-6, -5.09u): Miami (OH) at Ball State (OVER 52). A potential shootout awaits in Muncie for a series that has produced some high-scoring affairs as of late. I’m trusting both schools, who have picked up their scoring in conference play (and each field middling defenses), to get to the thirties. Ball State 34, Miami (OH) 30
Under of the Week (4-3, +0.63u): Ohio State at Indiana (UNDER 60.5). Ohio State’s offense has certainly found a rhythm as of late but is coming to Bloomington to play a legitimately great Hoosier defense which should hold up their end of the bargain. That said, Indiana’s legitimately, irritatingly poor offense is unlikely to exploit a Buckeye defense that isn’t what it used to be. Ohio State 31, Indiana 10
Moneyline of the Week (3-4, +1.95u): Kent State at OHIO (+185). Both of these teams are miserably bad and following this game should earn you a spot on some sort of no-fly list, to say nothing of the absolute sickos betting on it. That said, I think the wrong team is laying points here and I’ll take the Bobcats straight-up at home. Ohio 23, Kent State 21
One More for the Week (5-2, +2.53u): CLEMSON (+3) at Pittsburgh. There is no thought behind this pick other than I think it would be hilarious. Clemson has a legitimately good defense but that offense is [REDACTED] and while Pitt has a penchant to play some high-scoring games, I think Clemson can control this one and escape the Steel City with an upset— which is legitimately one of the funniest sentences I’ve ever typed. And it would be true! Clemson 11, Pitt 10
People’s Parlay (+1230):
Northwestern +23.5
Syracuse at Virginia Tech (UNDER 46)
Wisconsin -3
Ohio +6