Last Week: 3-3 (-0.27u)
A good gambler is just as useful as a bad gambler when it comes to tailing picks.
I harp on this point a lot anytime someone points out, online or elsewhere, that a person or algorithm posting picks is performing poorly. A few years ago, ESPN’s Football Power Index got about 40% of its picks ATS correct and r/sportsbook was alight with people making fun of it, with almost no one discussing that someone or something getting 60% of their picks wrong is insanely useful if you just fade all their picks. If you faded FPI that season, you would have made piles of money!
So it doesn’t matter if a gambler/model is really bad or really good. As long as they align closer to one extreme than the other, you can make money tailing it.
But then there’s me.
A guy going .500 on the season is completely worthless. You have no idea which of my picks are going to miss (save one) and which are going to hit. It’s maddening.
It’s also why I always break out the category of picks to help guide you in your quest of what to tail/fade/ignore from my picks. Hell, take the Overs out of the equation and I’m 12-8 and up nearly 5 units on the year, good for an ROI of almost 20%!
And if you’re thinking “did he broach this topic just so he could bring up that his performance outside the Over of the Week is actually pretty damn good?” … you would be extremely correct.
Let’s ride!
THE PICKS
Overall: 12-12 (+0.78u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (2-2,-0.20u): Western Kentucky at MICHIGAN STATE (-10.5). Letdown spot for the Hilltoppers who let it all hang out at home in primetime against Indiana and nearly captured a signature victory. Now they have to go on the road against a Spartan squad that is, probably somewhat surprisingly, undefeated. Don’t be afraid of that hook, this won’t be close. Michigan State 41, Western Kentucky 17
Underdog of the Week (3-1, +1.71u): Cincinnati at NOTRE DAME (+2.5). Let me put it this way: I’m not going to be devastated if this pick misses. But I can’t figure this line out and if you’re gonna play it, play it now because Jack Coan’s status is trending up and once he’s confirmed to take the field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Irish go off as a small favorite. Cincinnati was completely on the ropes in Bloomington before the very unfair and very dishonest ejection of Indiana’s best defensive player turned the game on its head. I just can’t buy them as a road favorite against a higher caliber opponent. But also Notre Dame can go to hell. Notre Dame 34, Cincinnati 30
Over of the Week (0-4, -4.0u): Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (OVER 58.5) If you play this pick you’re a huge dummy. I’m so spooked on these, man. I never loved picking overs but this is insane. Pitt can score and has a suspect defense, and the Jackets are coming off a scorefest against UNC. Whatever. Pittsburgh 9, Georgia Tech 5
Under of the Week (2-2, -0.19u): Virginia at Miami (UNDER 63). This is a Thursday night game, by the way. This number is way too high for teams struggling this badly at quarterback. D’Eriq King isn’t likely to play and there are big question marks behind him. His replacements looked great against FCS competition but this is a significant step up and Miami’s entire offense remains in a huge funk. Meanwhile, the Cavs are coming off a pathetic showing against Wake Forest. Any other week I’d give this tilt a chance to be the Sicko Game of the Week but UConn is literally playing Vandy on live television. Miami 23, Virginia 17
Moneyline of the Week (2-2, +1.75u): Western Michigan at BUFFALO (+220). Buffalo played with fire and nearly got burned as they tried to sleepwalk the second half against Old Dominion, barely escaping with the win. Meanwhile, WMU started the year being blown out by Michigan and then kicking ass ever since. That said— I love the home team at this number in a conference game. Buffalo 35, Western Michigan 34
One More for the Week (3-1, +1.71u): Ole Miss at ALABAMA (-7.5 1H). If you’ve been following my picks for a couple of years, you probably saw this pick coming from a mile away. It’s Nick Saban against one of his assistants and all the whispers of Ole Miss potentially springing an upset here has me even more confident that this will be largely over at half. Alabama 55, Ole Mis 21
People’s Parlay:
Michigan +2.5
UCF -16.5
Florida/UK u55
Michigan State -10.5