Last Week: 4-2 (+2.6u)
With our backs against the wall, OTB responded with a solid performance, going 4-2 with another hit on an underdog moneyline. Meanwhile, the People’s Parlay was also a garbage time pick-six away from hitting as well. Struggles remain on betting totals, but hoping water will find its level soon.
I get asked a lot (once) about my tendency to bet first half spreads on games with a massive favorite and I figured I’ll take a minute to give my reasoning. It’s not overly complicated, big spreads often precede blowout victories but blowout victories can make things a little hairier than necessary for anyone holding the favorite when starters are removed with multi-touchdown leads going into the fourth quarter and the dreaded backdoor cracks open.
By cutting the game in half you reduce your sample size, sure, but you also have far less points to cover. It’s also highly unlikely that you will lose any starters for “rest” or “game flow” reasons in the first thirty minutes of the game. Take Georgia, for example, a legitimate CFP contender going up against lowly Vanderbilt. For the full game, you would have to lay 35.5 on the Bulldogs to cover. That hook is horrifying. Imagine Kirby Smart yanking all his starters as he sits on a 49-7 lead midway through the 4th and a reinvigorated ‘Dores team, knowing they can put some good tape together against young backups, punches it in the endzone with less than two minutes to go.
BUHHHHHHHHHHHH.
The 1H line in that same game is only -21, an attainable number with no hook waiting to ruin your weekend. Sure, the Dawgs only have half as much time to get it done, but they’ll be rolling at full strength the entire time. It’s not a guarantee, of course, but I’d rather bet on two quarters of a team playing business as usual than risk relying on the backend of the depth chart to see us through the end.
THE PICKS
Overall: 9-9 (+1.05u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (2-1,+0.8u): Marshall at APPALACHIAN STATE (-7). The Mountaineers have had a pretty good start to the season. They comfortably beat a decent ECU team before taking Miami down to the wire in South Florida. But that same decent ECU team just knocked off Marshall on the road. The transitive property isn’t always the most reliable way to make a bet, but I’m confident a good Mountaineer defense (38th in SP+) will keep a struggling Thundering Herd offense (86th) from scoring enough to stay in this one. Also: this game is on THURSDAY NIGHT. App State 38, Marshall 20
Underdog of the Week (2-1, +0.8u): RUTGER (+20.5) at Michigan. I actually think Michigan is really good this year— but I think Rutger is better than a lot of folks think. I wish I didn’t think either of those things, but I do. These two are arguably among the most impressive Big Ten teams, relative to expectations, outside of Happy Valley and I expect the defenses to show out in a grinder of a game. Just can’t see a three-touchdown loss in that setting for anyone. Rutger is down one of their better defenders in Max Melton following a suspension for a (squints) paintball incident, but this is a defense that is more than the sum of its parts … hopefully. Michigan 31, Rutger 17
Over of the Week (0-3, -3.0u): West Virginia at Oklahoma (OVER 55.5) How many times can I step in a bear trap before I lose my leg for good? At least twice. Oklahoma 45, West Virginia 28
Under of the Week (1-2, -1.1u): Illinois at Purdue (UNDER 53.5). Injuries are piling up for Purdue, as their best tailback missed his first of 4-8 weeks last Saturday against Notre Dame and now their best wideout, David Bell, is in concussion protocol. Meanwhile, Illinois is a dreadful offensive unit pretty much top to bottom. A Sicko Game of the Week contender if I ever saw one. Purdue 26, Illinois 17
Moneyline of the Week (2-1, +2.75u): Kentucky at SOUTH CAROLINA (+170). I see a lot of value betting a home dog who is hosting a team going on the road for the first time this season. UK hasn’t been all that impressive through three weeks and are in a prime look-ahead spot with Florida coming to Lexington next week. South Carolina isn’t the most fun team to bet on right now, so just close your eyes and bet against the lackluster Wildcats in a tough spot. South Carolina 23, Kentucky 20
One More for the Week (2-1, +0.8u): Georgia (-21 1H) at Vanderbilt. A national title contender on the road against one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country. See above for reasoning. Georgia 48, Vanderbilt 10
The People’s Parlay: (+1258)
Notre Dame (+6.5)
Central Michigan (-10)
Buffalo (-13.5)
Washington (-7.5)