College football is back.
It is, once again, time to swear at a herd of teenagers you do not know on a Wednesday night because they left the back door open and you wagered way too much because, well, it was the only game on! You simply could not resist that hot tip from @SunBeltINSIDR0101 on Twitter. You figured his low follower count was because he was a real insider. Because you’re a fool.
You look at your book’s balance and resolve to “take this weekend off” until you remember that, oh hell yeah, tomorrow is payday.
There are easier ways to make money and, quite frankly, more enjoyable ways to lose it— but here we all are anyway. This could not be a more straightforward endeavor: every week, I’ll give you the picks I like the most and an explanation as to why I like them. I’ll also start with Some Thoughts About Something going on in the industry.
Speaking of which …
FOLLOW THE DATA?
I love a good model. If you’ve been gambling for any extended length of time, you’ve almost assuredly sought out the assistance of some nerd’s spreadsheet to help guide your picks or confirm your selections. Hell, you may have even made your own at some point. And may God bless you dorks for doing all this work so I don’t have to.
But I have a theory that all our favorite models might just be worthless this year. At least at first.
Gambling models, by design, utilize at least some data from the previous season when trying to predict the results of games between teams in the current year. The difference between a good model and a great model often comes down to knowing just how rapidly (or not) to let that old data decay and replace it with the shiny new numbers coming in every snap.
College football, also by design, has a ton of turnover year over year and that results in plenty of intelligent discussion about exactly what good a bunch of year-old data is for teams that can have their two-deep obliterated in a single offseason through some combination of graduation, the NFL draft, and the transfer portal. Even after a normal year, it’s not unusual for teams to look nothing like they did the season before, for better or for worse.
Now recall the bizarre 2020 season and Those Unprecedented Times. We're coming off the strangest football season of our lives and I, personally, can’t shake the feeling that those data points, which have now invaded this season’s models to one extent or the other, might be profoundly worthless.
Last year was a veritable parade of bad decisions and weird vibes. Conferences playing “will they won’t they” with the whole concept of playing at all before deciding to quietly wade into the season right before Halloween. The lurking menace of Contact Tracing leaving teams without key players on short notice, sometimes by the dozens. Hell, the Game Of The Whole Damn Year, was itself conceived on short notice due to another team succumbing to the plague.
But even with a few notable exceptions, most of the games felt like Spring exhibitions and looked a lot like them too as coaches reached as far as they could into their depth charts just to find warm bodies who weren’t required to quarantine. Every week just awash with the vibes of a mid-December bowl game being played in a leper colony.
I say all this to say: I would not be surprised to see the models we love to tail (or fade) struggle mightily out of the gates. Not because the models are bad or broken, but because the 2020 season was filled to the brim with nonsense and that nonsense makes up a big piece of the inputs.
Anyway, picks time.
THE PICKS
All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week: UL-Lafayette at TEXAS (-8). This is me fading the hell out of the public to start the year. People have been talking about the Rajin’ Cajuns upending the new Longhorns’ regime before it even gets going and it’s hard to blame them. UL-L is coming off a 9-1 year that included a win at Iowa State while Texas, well, remains more of a meme than a threat to take a meaningful step back toward what they used to be. But that doesn’t mean they can’t take care of business in a home opener against a team just good enough to not be looked over. Texas 38, UL-Lafayette 20
Dog of the Week: Texas Tech at HOUSTON (+1.5). We love a good home dog and I expect Houston to take a big step forward from last season and be a bit more reliable offensively after Dana Holgorsen loaded up in the transfer portal this offseason. This will probably be the most watchable game in Week 1 and I expect it to be high-scoring and close late, so I’ll take the home team and the points every time. Houston 44, Texas Tech 42
OVER OF THE WEEK: Indiana at Iowa (OVER 45.5). The Hawkeyes and Hoosiers don’t play as often as they should but no matter when these two get together, points follow. The average score over their last five contests is 37.6 - 24. Kirk Ferentz has never had too much trouble figuring out whatever defense the Hoosiers are using and with a new coordinator and an almost assured regression to the mean in the turnover department, Indiana could be more vulnerable on that side of the ball early on. Offensively, Michael Penix is healthy (and you never know how long we get to say that for) so I expect them to keep up in a fun back and forth game. Iowa 31, Indiana 27
Under of the Week: Oregon State at Purdue (UNDER 69). Despite coming to West Lafayette with an offensive scheme known to score in bunches, Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers have been wandering in the wilderness in that regard for a few seasons now— largely because he’s struggled to get consistency out of the quarterback position. No amount of scheme or skill can overcome bad QB play, and Purdue fans know that more than anyone these days. Coupled with a bad PAC-12 team taking a long trip out east to play this game makes me doubt they’ll cobble together 70+. Purdue 34, Oregon State 26
Moneyline of the Week: PENN STATE (+185) at Wisconsin. Penn State is one of several teams that come to my mind as a squad that just wasn’t all that into COVID-ball last year. Their on-field results screamed of a team struggling to really engage with the day-to-day requirements of being good at football after a soul-sucking loss at Indiana to start their season … in October … in front of basically no one. Weird to think of Week 1 as a “bounce back” spot for a team but that’s exactly what I’m feeling here. Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20
One More for the Week: ALABAMA (-10.5 1H) vs. Miami. I don’t know why teams keep agreeing to these neutral site showcases with Alabama. Granted, D’Eriq King (when healthy) is one of like four guys that could pull this off. But while it’s theoretically possible, it’s not at all probable, and I expect him and most of this game’s starters to be casual observers by the end. I’m not risking a back door breakdown. Alabama 41, Miami 20
The People’s Parlay: (+1228)
Penn State (+5.5)
Marshall (-2.5)
Ohio (+2)
Georgia/Clemson (UNDER 50.5)