One of my favorite parts of NFL Sunday, where I leave the Redzone Network on in every room with a TV so there’s something mildly interesting as I try to clean is when one of the two-dozen really bad quarterbacks hurls an absolutely braindead interception and the booth is dead silent for 30 seconds before offering up some incredibly insightful commentary like “that’s not what you want to see” or “that’s just not what you’re hoping for in that situation” and I nod along because, at my core, I’m a big dumb Football Guy— no matter how many soccer jerseys I wear in public.
So in that spirit: once again— with feeling!
Last week: 1-5 (-4.09u)
THAT’S NOT WHAT YOU WANT TO SEE.
Some days, everything is gonna go wrong. Your road dog is going to dominate a game and then lose their quarterback and defensive anchor. Your two-touchdown favorite, who has covered every game they’ve played, is going to get blown out at home (a fun reminder that trends don’t pay the rent). Your cheeky moneyline pick will come close but not quite get there, and normally that doesn’t hurt but on a day like this, it does. And then you have Ole Miss covering exactly the way you expect them to, with a last-second touchdown, except there was just enough last seconds for them to give up a potential game-tying score the other way followed by a bold decision from Arkansas preventing an OT cover/push.
As we talked back in Week 3, getting shellacked is part of the game. You are going to have bad weeks and if those bad weeks put you so far down you have to load up another deposit for the weekday slates, you’re not managing your units appropriately. Saturday wasn’t a fun day for ya boy, but we’re back at it this week because the management strategy is sound.
Most will recommend a unit size between 1-3% of your overall bankroll. If you’re betting anything bigger than that, days like I just had will sink entire seasons. Plenty of touts out there will tweet about their SUPER MEGA SLEDGEHAMMER LOCK OF THE MILLENNIUM and advocate putting 100 units on some C-USA school you’ve never watched a snap of. But the fact is there is no bet on the planet worth 100 units other than fading my Over of the Week.
Anywho.
THE PICKS
Overall: 17-19 (-1.58u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (3-3, -0.29u): Texas Christian at OKLAHOMA (-13.5). Count me among those that think Oklahoma’s problems were largely the product of Spencer Rattler being complete booty. Lincoln Riley can pretend all he wants that there’s some sort of mystery as to who the starter is going to be but everyone in the stadium last week, including Rattler, knew his time at the helm of the Sooners is over. I expect the Caleb Williams Era, which already started with a bang, to continue apace. Oklahoma 45, TCU 24
Underdog of the Week (3-3, -0.2u): Clemson at SYRACUSE (+14). Is there a team more bereft of sauce than Clemson right now? They cannot score against anyone and just look like a team that is in hell right now, like every game is a complete chore. An electric night in the Dome is going to have one Orange team ready to roll, and it won’t be Clemson. I can’t go so far as to take Cuse on the moneyline, but the 14 points are easy. Clemson 23, Syracuse 20
Over of the Week (1-5, -4.09u): Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (OVER 57.5). The Pitt Overs will continue until morale improves. Virginia Tech 33, Pitt 31
Under of the Week (4-2, +1.63u): Auburn at Arkansas (UNDER 54). Sure, the Hogs put up 51 on Ole Miss last week but I don’t expect anything close to a repeat of that performance. I see Arkansas committing themselves to running the ball and controlling the clock while Road Game Bo Nix keeps things nice and tidy for us when Auburn is on offense. Arkansas 23, Auburn 17
Moneyline of the Week (2-4, -0.25u): Louisiana Tech at UTEP (+220). UTEP is 5-1 with its lone loss at Boise State and have been a fun storyline for those of us who pay attention to every ounce of college football out there. The handful of nerd rankings I favor put these teams far closer to even than this number suggests. I know you’ve heard these arguments before but we’re going for it again. UTEP 30, LaTech 27
One More for the Week (4-2, +1.62u): ALABAMA (-10 1H) at Mississippi State. [Pat Carrol voice] POOR UNFORTUNATELY SOOOOOOOOOOOULS. Alabama ∞, Mississippi State 10
People’s Parlay (+1291):
Minnesota +4
Florida -11
Ole Miss at Tennessee OVER 82.5
Purdue +11.5