Last week: 4-2 (+1.75u)
I’ve got a bunch of hearings this week so we’re skipping the preamble.
THE PICKS
Overall: 16-14 (+2.51u, 8.1% ROI). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (3-2, +0.71u): Akron at BOWLING GREEN (-14). There’s only one team in the country that can boast that they’ve covered every week. And while trends are comforting, they aren’t particularly useful. What is useful is knowing that Akron is one of the very worst teams in football and while Bowling Green is hardly a goliath, they’ll make quick work of the Zips at home. Bowling Green 38, Akron 10
Underdog of the Week (3-2, +0.8u): PENN STATE (+1.5) at Iowa. One of these days, a team isn’t gonna hand Iowa the ball a bunch of times and they’ll have to drive the length of the field over and over to score and will be unable to do so. This Hawkeye team is good, but the unsustainable turnovers are making them appear to be great. If Sean Clifford can play a clean game (gulp), this should be a wake-up call. Penn State 23, Iowa 16
Over of the Week (1-4, -3.09u): Stanford at Arizona State (OVER 51.5). Our long national nightmare is over as the newsletter finally, FINALLY hits an over. A Friday night over in a Pac-12 tilt is practically a system play at this point. The Sun Devils can score with anyone and Stanford’s offense is good enough to do their part here. Arizona State 37, Stanford 23
Under of the Week (3-2, +0.72u): Connecticut at Massachusetts (UNDER 57). Somewhat of a common thread with the Huskies but this is a runaway Sicko Game of the Week. Two of the worst offenses in football that both are bottom tier in pace. Turnovers could put us in danger but unless the defense does the actual scoring, it might not matter. Connecticut 7, UMass 6
Moneyline of the Week (2-3, +0.75u): Central Michigan at OHIO (+175). This is enormous value in a game that most nerds agree should be closer to a pick’em. The Chips aren’t obviously better than the Bobcats when you compare the teams on paper, so I’m happy to risk the value the moneyline offers. Ohio 30, Central Michigan 27
One More for the Week (4-1, +2.62u): Arkansas at OLE MISS (-6). Both of these teams lost to national title contenders last week, but I came way a lot more concerned with the Razorbacks going forward. Additionally, this is a tough matchup for the defense-first Hogs with Ole Miss having a penchant to score on anyone. I can’t see the Arkansas offense keeping up. Ole Miss 34, Arkansas 24
People’s Parlay (+1291):
Syracuse +5.5
Penn State +1.5
Troy -5.5
Southern Miss +2