You know you’ve had a great week at the book when you kick off your subheading with the quote about not accepting defeat from a guy who, uh … hmm.
Anyway.
Last week was the kind of week that makes the boosters restless. The message boards are alight with literal fan fiction about how Urban Meyer’s camp is talking to folks behind the scenes about the merits of the job. We’ve got to right the ship and soon.
It’s as good of a time as any to preach the lesson of avoiding the dreaded tilt. You are going to have bad days at the book, it’s just a fact. Vegas didn’t get built because this is easy.
How you handle a bad day is the difference between an average gambler and a great one. Both guys have their fair share of bad days, but one pours a drink and assumes water will find its level next time while the other has put together a last-second, six-leg parlay involving teams that aren’t even on TV.
If you’re serious about making money as a gambler, your picks are in long before games kick off and just because things get sideways isn’t a reason to abandon your process and going full send for Hawaii’s midnight kickoff. (Which we, affectionately, call Bombing The Island, when dudes who are, quite literally, down bad put the rest of the bankroll on the Hawai’i game.)
And there’s a difference between, say, reserving some of the weekly bankroll to live bet the games you’re watching and what I’m talking about. There’s a tendency to believe you’re always one pick away from getting it all back when, in reality, you can lose ten bets in a row— every gambler I know has done it, good or bad. Showing some patience when things go south keeps you in the games longer. Make your picks and then chill, if you find yourself panic betting the early morning Premier League games as the Rainbow Warriors fall behind 33-0, it’s time to reevaluate the process.
THE PICKS
Overall: 5-7 (-1.55u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (1-1,-0.1u): Auburn at PENN STATE (-4.5). We’re gonna try really hard to think less this week. Penn State is playing its first big home game in two years and the raucous environment will be more than enough to throw off Bo Nix, who has shown to be, uh, unreliable in road settings. Penn State 27, Auburn 17
Underdog of the Week (1-1, -0.1u): Northwestern at DUKE (+3). A runaway favorite for Sicko Game of the Week. Both of these teams are absolute hot dog water and in a matchup of similarly bad teams, give me the home team who is catching points. Duke 29, Northwestern 28.
Over of the Week (0-2, -2.0u): Nebraska at Oklahoma (OVER 62). I think this has the potential to be a highly watchable game, and I’ll probably say that about the Sooners every week for the foreseeable future. Instead of becoming more balanced, the Sooners seem to be becoming a caricature of themselves. Once again trying to think less: Oklahoma can score on anyone and be scored on by anyone. Oklahoma 49, Nebraska 31
Under of the Week (1-1, -0.1u): Connecticut at Army (UNDER 48). I find it unlikely that UConn is going to score much, if at all, against a fierce Army defense. The question becomes whether or not Army can keep their own scoring low. Given that the option offense keeps the clock moving at a brisk pace, I like our chances. Army 35, Connecticut 3.
Moneyline of the Week (1-1, +0.85u): MICHIGAN STATE (+190) at Miami. It pains me to say it as an alumnus, but something is up with the Hurricanes right now. Getting flattened by Alabama isn’t normally cause for concern but key injuries and a close call against Appalachian State at home make me wonder if D’Eriq King’s knee is keeping him from being who Miami needs him to be. The Spartans haven’t beaten anyone good, but I think this is good value. Michigan State 23, Miami 20
One More for the Week (1-1, -0.1u): ALABAMA (-7.5 1H) at Florida. This game has been talked about just enough as a spot where Bama might look vulnerable so I expect the Tide to have a fast start that might look a little better by the game’s end. Alabama 31, Florida 17
The People’s Parlay: (+1236)
Wyoming/Ball State (u53.5)
Troy (-9.5)
Notre Dame (-7)
Oklahoma State/Boise State (u57.5)