The debut week of any picks column is always terrifying. You never want to be the guy that publishes a bunch of losing picks and then comes crawling back into people’s inboxes the next week. But we did it! We pieced together a winning day and were only a complete meltdown from Houston and what appeared to be a joint decision between Iowa and Indiana to end that game as quickly as possible away from having quite the time.
We also went 3/4 on the People’s Parlay, but that miss wasn’t even close. Ohio was lucky to be down a mere 6 points at half and then things snowballed out of control from there. But we’ll continue to chase that dragon anyway, Saturday is a new day.
But something that had my attention on Thursday night was the importance of getting the very best number you can. A half-point never seems like a huge deal until you’ve got Ohio State -14 or u66.5 in Boise State/UCF. Two minutes of line shoppping would have netted you OSU -13.5 and u67, but only if you looked.
I know it seems like a huge hassle to have money scattered across different books, and back when you could only use bitcoin to fund your account, it truly was. Now that gambling is good and legal in a lot of the US, you have a plethora of online books that will gladly take your hard-earned money and let you gamble with it in a matter of seconds, so there’s really no good excuse to not be reviewing all the available lines.
In fact, there are several (free) services out there that will show you what the lines are at every book around for a single game, so you can easily see where your best number is and go play it. This is a sharp game played with very, very small margins: take the free points when you can get them.
THE PICKS
Overall: 4-2 (+2.55u). All bets are 1u.
Favorite of the Week (1-0,+0.9u): Texas State at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-1.5). This screams “letdown spot” for Texas State, who stuck around admirably against Baylor last weekend in a game that was the biggest game on their schedule other than a showdown with Coastal late in the year with possible conference title implications. Butch Davis has built out an admirable program in Sweetwater and it’s not like his ability to coach is the reason he isn’t at a top program still. Florida International 39, Texas State 30
Dog of the Week (0-1, -1.0u): IOWA (+4.5) at Iowa State. I, unfortunately, watched every down of the Hawkeyes last week and cannot believe they’re getting points in this game. It’s not easy to win in Ames, but the Cyclones did not look great in a close win over Northern Iowa. On the other side, two pick-sixes and a long touchdown run masked a Hawkeye offense that struggled to string plays together, but that defense is ready for primetime. I expect things to be close and weird, so I’ll take all the points I can get. Iowa 11, Iowa State 10
OVER OF THE WEEK (0-1, -1.0u): North Texas at Southern Methodist (OVER 74). This is mostly a principle play based on the idea that anytime there’s a fun matchup between two all-gas-no-brakes squads with a total above 70, you bet the over. I’m here for a good time, not a long time. SMU 59, North Texas 38
Under of the Week (1-0, +0.9u): Pittsburgh at Tennessee (UNDER 57). I think this is an under-the-radar candidate for Sicko Game of the Year. Just the worst imaginable vibes from this. Both squads can play a little defense and while both offenses are certainly capable, they just seem particularly prone to calamity. I don’t think I can look away. Tennessee 23, Pittsburgh 19
Moneyline of the Week (1-0, +1.85u): TOLEDO (+600) at Notre Dame. Notre Dame looked just bad enough last weekend and I’m just enough obsessed with the Rockets that I’m willing to take the value here in what I think could be a one-score game either way. Toledo’s defensive line is completely rabid and if they’re having success … look out. Not to mention freshman stud OT Blake Fisher is out about two months for the Fighting Irish. Toledo 31, Notre Dame 28
One More for the Week (1-0, +0.9u): Oregon at OHIO STATE (-6 1Q). The Buckeyes had a rocky start in Minneapolis but recovered nicely in the 2nd half and I just can’t see Oregon keeping up on the road, especially after how dinged up they got in their opener. I think the Buckeyes get off to a fast start thanks to BODYCLOCKS and have the Ducks on their heels early. Ohio State 37, Oregon 24
The People’s Parlay: (+1236)
Syracuse (+2.5)
Penn State (-21)
Navy (+5.5)
Utah (-7)